The price of rice has gone up here from $13 for a
ten-kilo sack to around $18. This is the beginning
of an article from the World Bank's website - I'll
provide a link but I'm not sure it will work, I think
it's an internal website. Climate change isn't
mentioned by name, but I think it can be inferred -
(conflict, floods and extreme weather - the causes
of which are ~ ?)
High Food Prices—A Harsh New Reality
Rising food prices are affecting poor people, who often spend more than half their incomes on foodMarch 3, 2008––In Mexico City, mass protests about the cost of tortillas. In West Bengal, disputes over food-rationing. In Senegal, Mauritania, and other parts of Africa, riots over grain prices. And in Yemen, children march in public to call attention to child hunger.
This chain of events is in stark contrast to the falling food prices that consumers have come to expect over the past several decades.
On February 13, the FAO announced that 36 countries are in crisis as a result of higher food prices and will require external assistance. In many of these countries, food insecurity has been worsened by conflict, floods, or extreme weather.
Last month, in Davos and in Addis Ababa, Bob Zoellick called for action to tackle hunger and malnutrition in a world of rising food prices. "Hunger and malnutrition are the forgotten Millennium Development Goal. It has gotten less attention, but increased food prices and their threat—not only to people but also to political stability—have made it a matter of urgency to draw the attention it needs,” he said. (See FAO’s World Food Situation site.)
The Factors at Work
While headline news about high food prices is a relatively recent phenomenon, the broader upswing in commodity prices began in 2001. Large structural shifts in the global economy—including growing demand in China and India—have been steadily reflected in commodity price increases, especially of metals and energy.
Food prices have increased in response to many factors: higher energy and fertilizer prices; increased demand for biofuels, especially in the US and the European Union; and droughts in Australia and other countries. World grain stocks are at record lows, and next year’s prices depend on the success of the next harvest in the northern hemisphere.
Wheat prices in US dollars have increased by 200 percent, and overall food prices have risen by 75 percent since the turn of the century. Adjusting for exchange rates and domestic inflation reduces the price increases faced by developing countries—but these increases are still severe for millions of poor consumers.
“The increases in grain prices are not caused by short-term supply disruptions, as is the normal case, and it will likely take several years for supplies to increase, to rebuild stocks and allow prices to fall,” said Don Mitchell, lead economist in the Development Prospects Group.
If You Live on Less Than $1 a Day
Imagine a low-income family, say in Bangladesh, that might pay 20 cents for a kilogram of rice one year and 30 cents the next. For poor people, who often spend more than half their incomes on food, unrelenting increases in the price of staples can be devastating.
Yemen, which imports about 2 million metric tons of wheat a year, illustrates how rising food prices can increase poverty. After a year of record inflation, doubled wheat and wheat product prices might increase national poverty by 6 percentage points.
“If no action is taken, this could fully reverse the gains in poverty reduction that we’ve seen in the country between 1998 and 2005,” said Thirumalai Srinivasan, country economist, Yemen.
While the urban poor are most affected, it is worth remembering that most rural people are buyers rather than sellers of food. There could well be severe effects for landless rural workers whose subsistence wages may not increase in line with food prices.
No Relief in Sight
The root causes of the phenomenon of rising food costs—high energy and fertilizer prices, the demand for food crops in biofuel production, and low food stocks—are likely to prevail in the medium term.
Energy and fertilizer prices are projected to stay high. Already, fertilizer prices have increased 150 percent in the past five years. This is very significant, because the cost of fertilizer is 25 to 30 percent of the overall cost of grain production in the US—which supplies 40 percent of world grain exports.
The demand for biofuels will also probably rise. A quarter of the US maize crop—11 percent of the global crop—went into biofuel production this year, and the US supplies more than 60 percent of world maize exports. Notably, the US—one of more than 20 countries to require biofuels use—has just doubled its biofuels mandate for 2015.
“The biofuels surge makes things worse by adding high demand on top of already high prices and low stocks,” said Mitchell. “Ethanol and biodiesel produced in the US and EU don’t appear to be delivering on ’green’ promises either, making them very controversial,” he added.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Looking back in anger at a life less ordinary
From an Australian paper, theage.com.au. Notice the date.
Tom HylandJune 1, 2006
HE'S the face of the army rebels at the centre of East
Timor's chaos, the swaggering military policeman who
is now taking pot-shots at his former comrades, who
was trained in Australia and wants Australian troops
"to bring some VB for us".
He's a quotable, charismatic braggard who works well
for the cameras. But there's more to Alfredo Alves
Reinado than boastful bluster.
Behind the bravado of the army renegade is a terrible
story that is a microcosm of his sorry country's recent
history.
It's the story of a man who, during the savage years of
the Indonesian occupation, saw things no one should
ever see. It's the story of an 11-year-old child forced
onto the battlefield to witness rape, murder and famine;
who was abducted to Indonesia in a box and forced to
work as a domestic slave. It's a story of secret work in
the East Timorese underground resistance and of a
daring escape to Australia.
It's also the story of a man who personifies the fractious
personal and political divisions in East Timor's armed
forces that have plunged the newly independent nation
into chaos. Reinado's frustrated ambition is a key factor
in the crisis.
The events of the past few weeks in East Timor have their
roots in 24 years of terror that ripped a society apart and
left its people scarred and haunted by unimaginable trauma.
Reinado gave his account of what happened to him during
those years in testimony to the Commission for Reception,
Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR), the body set up by the
UN and the East Timorese Government to document East
Timor's ordeal from 1974 until 1999.
The notes of his testimony said he spoke for two hours, his
listeners gripped "by both the events of his tale and his spirit
of resilience and compassion."
This is an edited account of what he said:
"I was born in Aileu in November 1966. After the Indonesian
invasion, in 1976, we moved south to a place near Turiscai.
My father and older sister had fled to Australia.
"The following year, when I was 11 years old, I was separated
from my mother and three of my younger brothers and sisters.
I travelled with some people that I didn't know until eventually
my mother and I met up again.
"On that journey I witnessed immense suffering: people dying
of hunger, parents killing their children because they were
making too much noise and they were worried they would alert
the Indonesian military; children leaving their aged parents to
die; decaying corpses; and members of political parties killing
other Timorese because of political differences. The men who
killed for political reasons were very cruel. There was no
difference between them and the Indonesian army.
"I had to find my own food at that time and once I went into
an area controlled by Indonesia. They shot at me and a bullet
grazed the right side of my head.
"One day at school in Maubisse, Sergeant A (the names of
all Indonesian soldiers were suppressed in the CAVR report,
at the insistence of President Xanana Gusmao) approached me.
He knew me, and he said that I had to become a TBO (the
Indonesian acronym for Operations Assistants, boys forced to
work for the army as porters).
"I was only 11 years old and my mother protested but it made
no difference. I was taken away.
"I had to work at the base camp and accompany Sergeant A
when he went to fight. I had to lie down behind the soldiers
and fill up the magazines of their guns.
"One day one of the TBOs who was carrying a heavy load,
refused to accept more weight to his load. The soldier became
angry. When they arrived back at base camp, all the soldiers
in the platoon and the TBOs were gathered together. The
commander said that a TBO is not allowed to refuse to carry
something. He said the army had come to help and to bring
independence.
"After that, the TBO who had refused to carry the goods
was called and before everyone's eyes he was shot dead.
They told us that if we refused to comply, our fate would
be the same.
"During the time with the army I saw horrific things. During
an operation in Turiscai I saw them tie the men to trees and
rape the women. I saw women being dragged away by two or
three men who then used them in whatever way they wanted.
"We were carrying out an operation from Turiscai in the south
and then we headed towards Baucau. One day we came across
people in the jungle. All of those people were shot dead except
a two year-old-girl called Amelia.They shot the parents dead
right in front of the little girl. A sergeant called B took the little
girl with him.
"So often we talk as if the only violations that occurred were
those of 1999 ( during the independence vote). But violations
were occurring right through 1975, 1980, 1985. They haven't
been recorded because there were no international people to
record them and the victims often choose to remain silent.
"Being kicked and beaten were everyday occurrences for us.
If we cried we did it silently and we didn't complain.
"After that operation, we returned to Aileu where our battalion
was preparing to go home. Little Amelia, five TBOs, a boy from
a concentration camp, and I were taken to Dili.
"I kept asking when I would be returned to my mother because
for a whole year she did not know where I was. One day I
overheard the army commander say that the soldiers were not
allowed to bring children home with them to Indonesia.
"Sergeant A told me that I could come along to see the port. I
was very excited because I thought that in a few days I would be
free to go find my family. On the last day, Sergeant A told me I
could come and see the port again and he told me to get inside
a box so that the prime minister wouldn't see me. I was kept
inside that box for hours and I was sweating like crazy.
"Finally they let me out. I looked out and saw that I was on
the ship and that there were other friends there, too, looking
"Then I noticed that Dili was fading into the distance. I realised
I was not going to be reunited with my mother. I felt very sad
and wept. All the children that were being taken away on that
boat were crying, except little Amelia. She didn't have any
understanding of what was going on. I had not seen my mother
since I was taken from the school yard in Maubisse two years
before. I left East Timor in February 1980, aged 13."
Reinado spent the next five years in Indonesia. With the
help of a sympathetic Indonesian army officer, he eventually
made his way back to East Timor, where he was re-united
with his mother and got work with an uncle, driving a truck.
In 1987 he became a member of the "clandestine movement",
which supported the Falintil guerillas in resisting the Indonesian
occupation. In July 1995 he captained a boat bringing 18 refugees
to Australia.
Reinado's testimony ends with his escape to Australia, but his
story doesn't. He stayed in Australia, working in a Perth shipyard,
until he returned to liberated East Timor in 1999.
He joined his country's new armed forces in 2002 — one of only
three from the western part of the country to be given a senior
rank. From the start, he was resented by the senior command of
the new army — all of them easterners, veterans of Falintil who
had held out longest and suffered the most during the Indonesian
occupation.
And his personality didn't help, says a senior Australian army
officer who knows him.
"The senior hierarchy didn't like westerners, but in particular
they didn't like Alfredo," says the officer, who spoke on condition
he not be identified.
Reinado was given command of East Timor's tiny two-gunboat navy,
based at Hera outside Dili. "He was the most blunt-talking abrasive
action man and that rubbed the senior commanders the wrong way."
In July 2004 he was sacked as navy commander and appointed to a
desk job.
In July last year he was sent to study at the Australian Command
and Staff College, followed by an attachment to Australian navy
patrol boats operating out of Darwin. But instead of returning to
the navy, he was appointed to command a new military police
section of the army.
"He always strongly resented the fact that the love of his life, the
navy, was removed from his command," the officer said.
Last month Reinado took his military policemen out of Dili, joining
600 soldiers who had deserted in protest at discrimination by the
eastern-dominated high command.
Reinado says his action was motivated by disgust at the way the
army put down protests in support of the rebel soldiers on April
28. But his history suggests his motivation is deeper and more
complex.
Now he has fired on his former comrades and blood has been spilled.
"This really makes resolving this all that more difficult," says the
officer. "Blood debts will be held for a long time."
Tom HylandJune 1, 2006
HE'S the face of the army rebels at the centre of East
Timor's chaos, the swaggering military policeman who
is now taking pot-shots at his former comrades, who
was trained in Australia and wants Australian troops
"to bring some VB for us".
He's a quotable, charismatic braggard who works well
for the cameras. But there's more to Alfredo Alves
Reinado than boastful bluster.
Behind the bravado of the army renegade is a terrible
story that is a microcosm of his sorry country's recent
history.
It's the story of a man who, during the savage years of
the Indonesian occupation, saw things no one should
ever see. It's the story of an 11-year-old child forced
onto the battlefield to witness rape, murder and famine;
who was abducted to Indonesia in a box and forced to
work as a domestic slave. It's a story of secret work in
the East Timorese underground resistance and of a
daring escape to Australia.
It's also the story of a man who personifies the fractious
personal and political divisions in East Timor's armed
forces that have plunged the newly independent nation
into chaos. Reinado's frustrated ambition is a key factor
in the crisis.
The events of the past few weeks in East Timor have their
roots in 24 years of terror that ripped a society apart and
left its people scarred and haunted by unimaginable trauma.
Reinado gave his account of what happened to him during
those years in testimony to the Commission for Reception,
Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR), the body set up by the
UN and the East Timorese Government to document East
Timor's ordeal from 1974 until 1999.
The notes of his testimony said he spoke for two hours, his
listeners gripped "by both the events of his tale and his spirit
of resilience and compassion."
This is an edited account of what he said:
"I was born in Aileu in November 1966. After the Indonesian
invasion, in 1976, we moved south to a place near Turiscai.
My father and older sister had fled to Australia.
"The following year, when I was 11 years old, I was separated
from my mother and three of my younger brothers and sisters.
I travelled with some people that I didn't know until eventually
my mother and I met up again.
"On that journey I witnessed immense suffering: people dying
of hunger, parents killing their children because they were
making too much noise and they were worried they would alert
the Indonesian military; children leaving their aged parents to
die; decaying corpses; and members of political parties killing
other Timorese because of political differences. The men who
killed for political reasons were very cruel. There was no
difference between them and the Indonesian army.
"I had to find my own food at that time and once I went into
an area controlled by Indonesia. They shot at me and a bullet
grazed the right side of my head.
"One day at school in Maubisse, Sergeant A (the names of
all Indonesian soldiers were suppressed in the CAVR report,
at the insistence of President Xanana Gusmao) approached me.
He knew me, and he said that I had to become a TBO (the
Indonesian acronym for Operations Assistants, boys forced to
work for the army as porters).
"I was only 11 years old and my mother protested but it made
no difference. I was taken away.
"I had to work at the base camp and accompany Sergeant A
when he went to fight. I had to lie down behind the soldiers
and fill up the magazines of their guns.
"One day one of the TBOs who was carrying a heavy load,
refused to accept more weight to his load. The soldier became
angry. When they arrived back at base camp, all the soldiers
in the platoon and the TBOs were gathered together. The
commander said that a TBO is not allowed to refuse to carry
something. He said the army had come to help and to bring
independence.
"After that, the TBO who had refused to carry the goods
was called and before everyone's eyes he was shot dead.
They told us that if we refused to comply, our fate would
be the same.
"During the time with the army I saw horrific things. During
an operation in Turiscai I saw them tie the men to trees and
rape the women. I saw women being dragged away by two or
three men who then used them in whatever way they wanted.
"We were carrying out an operation from Turiscai in the south
and then we headed towards Baucau. One day we came across
people in the jungle. All of those people were shot dead except
a two year-old-girl called Amelia.They shot the parents dead
right in front of the little girl. A sergeant called B took the little
girl with him.
"So often we talk as if the only violations that occurred were
those of 1999 ( during the independence vote). But violations
were occurring right through 1975, 1980, 1985. They haven't
been recorded because there were no international people to
record them and the victims often choose to remain silent.
"Being kicked and beaten were everyday occurrences for us.
If we cried we did it silently and we didn't complain.
"After that operation, we returned to Aileu where our battalion
was preparing to go home. Little Amelia, five TBOs, a boy from
a concentration camp, and I were taken to Dili.
"I kept asking when I would be returned to my mother because
for a whole year she did not know where I was. One day I
overheard the army commander say that the soldiers were not
allowed to bring children home with them to Indonesia.
"Sergeant A told me that I could come along to see the port. I
was very excited because I thought that in a few days I would be
free to go find my family. On the last day, Sergeant A told me I
could come and see the port again and he told me to get inside
a box so that the prime minister wouldn't see me. I was kept
inside that box for hours and I was sweating like crazy.
"Finally they let me out. I looked out and saw that I was on
the ship and that there were other friends there, too, looking
"Then I noticed that Dili was fading into the distance. I realised
I was not going to be reunited with my mother. I felt very sad
and wept. All the children that were being taken away on that
boat were crying, except little Amelia. She didn't have any
understanding of what was going on. I had not seen my mother
since I was taken from the school yard in Maubisse two years
before. I left East Timor in February 1980, aged 13."
Reinado spent the next five years in Indonesia. With the
help of a sympathetic Indonesian army officer, he eventually
made his way back to East Timor, where he was re-united
with his mother and got work with an uncle, driving a truck.
In 1987 he became a member of the "clandestine movement",
which supported the Falintil guerillas in resisting the Indonesian
occupation. In July 1995 he captained a boat bringing 18 refugees
to Australia.
Reinado's testimony ends with his escape to Australia, but his
story doesn't. He stayed in Australia, working in a Perth shipyard,
until he returned to liberated East Timor in 1999.
He joined his country's new armed forces in 2002 — one of only
three from the western part of the country to be given a senior
rank. From the start, he was resented by the senior command of
the new army — all of them easterners, veterans of Falintil who
had held out longest and suffered the most during the Indonesian
occupation.
And his personality didn't help, says a senior Australian army
officer who knows him.
"The senior hierarchy didn't like westerners, but in particular
they didn't like Alfredo," says the officer, who spoke on condition
he not be identified.
Reinado was given command of East Timor's tiny two-gunboat navy,
based at Hera outside Dili. "He was the most blunt-talking abrasive
action man and that rubbed the senior commanders the wrong way."
In July 2004 he was sacked as navy commander and appointed to a
desk job.
In July last year he was sent to study at the Australian Command
and Staff College, followed by an attachment to Australian navy
patrol boats operating out of Darwin. But instead of returning to
the navy, he was appointed to command a new military police
section of the army.
"He always strongly resented the fact that the love of his life, the
navy, was removed from his command," the officer said.
Last month Reinado took his military policemen out of Dili, joining
600 soldiers who had deserted in protest at discrimination by the
eastern-dominated high command.
Reinado says his action was motivated by disgust at the way the
army put down protests in support of the rebel soldiers on April
28. But his history suggests his motivation is deeper and more
complex.
Now he has fired on his former comrades and blood has been spilled.
"This really makes resolving this all that more difficult," says the
officer. "Blood debts will be held for a long time."
The Funeral
This morning, neighbours were picking flowers from the trees
in our yard for funeral bouquets. Here is a link to another
article about what's happening and the reaction so far to
Alfredo's death;
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/plan-was-to-kidnap-not-assassinate/2008/02/13/1202760398637.html
The body arrived at his father's home yesterday and the
funeral proper is scheduled to start today around 3 or 4 pm.
in our yard for funeral bouquets. Here is a link to another
article about what's happening and the reaction so far to
Alfredo's death;
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/plan-was-to-kidnap-not-assassinate/2008/02/13/1202760398637.html
The body arrived at his father's home yesterday and the
funeral proper is scheduled to start today around 3 or 4 pm.
A Good Article
I just found a good article on Reinado. It confirms my suspicions
that the petitioners may have a worthy cause - certainly a cause
that many people support - but perhaps not the best leader.
Instead of providing a link, I think I will just paste it in full.
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
Rebel's death a chance for unity Michael Leach
When I wrote on Monday that disarming the increasingly
threatening and erratic Major Alfredo Reinado had become
a critical priority for national unity in East Timor, there was
little indication that these concerns could be so dramatically
realised within hours.
Monday morning's tragic events were the precipitous
endpoint of an ill-defined "negotiation" with an erratic but
charismatic fugitive wanted for serious crimes arising from
the 2006 crisis.
Jose Ramos Horta, the hero of the diplomatic front in the
resistance struggle, now fights for his life in a Darwin hospital.
Once again the culture of the gun and covert resistance threatens
to overwhelm a nascent culture of democratic opposition. This
culture is a hybrid legacy of Timor's desperate clandestine
struggle against Indonesian occupation, but also of the Indonesian
military habit of elevating military thugs to local warlord status,
and awarding them a semi-legitimate "second function" as
political figures.
In the short-term, it is likely that Monday's events will cause
further instability as Reinado's hard-core supporters struggle
to come to grips with a changed reality. However, in the
mid-term they may prove a circuit-breaker. Having attacked
two national heroes, and grievously wounded one, the context of
Reinado's death will severely limit the capacity of his supporters to
make him a political martyr. The rumours now circling in Dili that
he is "not dead", or the absurd exculpatory rumour that two
coordinated, unscheduled armed intrusions at 6am were a
"negotiation" strategy gone wrong, attest to the difficulty of
spinning these events in a politically useful way.
The position of Reinado's gang, which includes the petitioners'
leader Salsinha, apparently implicated in the attack on Prime
Minister Xanana Gusmao, is now politically untenable. It is likely
that large numbers of the petitioners will seek to distance themselves
quickly from their discredited erstwhile leader. It should be recalled
that Reinado was not originally one of the petitioners, but the leader
of a separate breakaway group of military police.
He has since aligned with them to provide a fig leaf to his own case,
which ultimately consisted of little more than a refusal to face justice
outside his own terms. As others have noted, this stance greatly
complicated the resolution of the petitioners' grievances.
It is well know that as president, Gusmao strongly opposed the
original sacking of the petitioners. With Reinado gone, the Prime
Minister's credibility with this group should aid him in resolving their
complaints. Indeed, it seems likely that a smaller group of petitioners
had recently broken away to make a deal, isolating Reinado from some
of his support base and perhaps setting him on his final path of
destruction. Sadly, the Government's strategy did not include
disarming a dangerous renegade as first priority.
For their part, the Government must swiftly move to give the
petitioners a clear choice: disown Salisnha and the remnants of the
Reinado group and accept a suitable assistance package for their
legitimate grievances, or face legal association with culprits in
Monday's attack.
Some have noted, with irony, that Ramos Horta was leading the
negotiations. This is an unfair view as the new alliance Government
contained some key figures sympathetic to Reinado. Ramos Horta's
hand was somewhat forced in order to maintain unity in the new
Government.
It is also true that the Australian Defence Force attack on Reinado's
base ended up a public relations problem for the new Government,
with its capacity to discredit the International Stabilisation Force
presence in the eyes of many Timorese.
Sensitivity is demanded in the conduct of the Australian military.
Its presence is clearly essential, but there are questions of public
perception. Once renegade groups are disarmed, the Federal
Government must ask whether a standing army in Dili is the best
model for East Timor.
The increased Australian police presence signalled by Rudd is a
welcome move. In the long run, a reserve defence force presence,
behind a police-fronted mission may be preferable.
Finally, long-standing divisions within the political elite, and the
failure to sustain a unifying vision beyond the independence struggle
lies behind much of the strife. As Ramos Horta lies wounded, it is
clearly time to for the political elite to heal their rifts and unite with
younger leaders to consign the culture of the gunmen to history.
Michael Leach, a research fellow at Deakin University, visited the
eastern region of Timor-Leste last month to research relationships
between modern and traditional authorities.
that the petitioners may have a worthy cause - certainly a cause
that many people support - but perhaps not the best leader.
Instead of providing a link, I think I will just paste it in full.
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
Rebel's death a chance for unity Michael Leach
When I wrote on Monday that disarming the increasingly
threatening and erratic Major Alfredo Reinado had become
a critical priority for national unity in East Timor, there was
little indication that these concerns could be so dramatically
realised within hours.
Monday morning's tragic events were the precipitous
endpoint of an ill-defined "negotiation" with an erratic but
charismatic fugitive wanted for serious crimes arising from
the 2006 crisis.
Jose Ramos Horta, the hero of the diplomatic front in the
resistance struggle, now fights for his life in a Darwin hospital.
Once again the culture of the gun and covert resistance threatens
to overwhelm a nascent culture of democratic opposition. This
culture is a hybrid legacy of Timor's desperate clandestine
struggle against Indonesian occupation, but also of the Indonesian
military habit of elevating military thugs to local warlord status,
and awarding them a semi-legitimate "second function" as
political figures.
In the short-term, it is likely that Monday's events will cause
further instability as Reinado's hard-core supporters struggle
to come to grips with a changed reality. However, in the
mid-term they may prove a circuit-breaker. Having attacked
two national heroes, and grievously wounded one, the context of
Reinado's death will severely limit the capacity of his supporters to
make him a political martyr. The rumours now circling in Dili that
he is "not dead", or the absurd exculpatory rumour that two
coordinated, unscheduled armed intrusions at 6am were a
"negotiation" strategy gone wrong, attest to the difficulty of
spinning these events in a politically useful way.
The position of Reinado's gang, which includes the petitioners'
leader Salsinha, apparently implicated in the attack on Prime
Minister Xanana Gusmao, is now politically untenable. It is likely
that large numbers of the petitioners will seek to distance themselves
quickly from their discredited erstwhile leader. It should be recalled
that Reinado was not originally one of the petitioners, but the leader
of a separate breakaway group of military police.
He has since aligned with them to provide a fig leaf to his own case,
which ultimately consisted of little more than a refusal to face justice
outside his own terms. As others have noted, this stance greatly
complicated the resolution of the petitioners' grievances.
It is well know that as president, Gusmao strongly opposed the
original sacking of the petitioners. With Reinado gone, the Prime
Minister's credibility with this group should aid him in resolving their
complaints. Indeed, it seems likely that a smaller group of petitioners
had recently broken away to make a deal, isolating Reinado from some
of his support base and perhaps setting him on his final path of
destruction. Sadly, the Government's strategy did not include
disarming a dangerous renegade as first priority.
For their part, the Government must swiftly move to give the
petitioners a clear choice: disown Salisnha and the remnants of the
Reinado group and accept a suitable assistance package for their
legitimate grievances, or face legal association with culprits in
Monday's attack.
Some have noted, with irony, that Ramos Horta was leading the
negotiations. This is an unfair view as the new alliance Government
contained some key figures sympathetic to Reinado. Ramos Horta's
hand was somewhat forced in order to maintain unity in the new
Government.
It is also true that the Australian Defence Force attack on Reinado's
base ended up a public relations problem for the new Government,
with its capacity to discredit the International Stabilisation Force
presence in the eyes of many Timorese.
Sensitivity is demanded in the conduct of the Australian military.
Its presence is clearly essential, but there are questions of public
perception. Once renegade groups are disarmed, the Federal
Government must ask whether a standing army in Dili is the best
model for East Timor.
The increased Australian police presence signalled by Rudd is a
welcome move. In the long run, a reserve defence force presence,
behind a police-fronted mission may be preferable.
Finally, long-standing divisions within the political elite, and the
failure to sustain a unifying vision beyond the independence struggle
lies behind much of the strife. As Ramos Horta lies wounded, it is
clearly time to for the political elite to heal their rifts and unite with
younger leaders to consign the culture of the gunmen to history.
Michael Leach, a research fellow at Deakin University, visited the
eastern region of Timor-Leste last month to research relationships
between modern and traditional authorities.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Alfredo Reinado - the word on the street
As you have most likely heard by now, Ramos-Horta was shot
yesterday. Alfredo Reinado, the leader of the petitionaros
(those who signed a petition two years ago asking that their
claims of discrimination in the armed forces be addressed)
was killed. I just attended a security briefing at the World
Bank, so I have a slightly clearer idea of what happened than
before. (The New York Times also has a pretty good article).
So apparently six men came to Horta's house (which is on the
outskirts of Dili, to the east - there are very few neighbours.
I could probably take a picture sometime (no time soon tho,
I'm sure) but I'm just saying it's a little bit "isolated" - but only
2 or 3 minutes from the eastern edge of Dili). Anyhow, they got
past the first layer of security. Horta was not at home
(he was walking on the beach) and Alfredo started "making
some noise" which alerted security (this is according to the
briefing I just heard). In the ensuing gunfight Alfredo and one
of his men were killed. Horta heard the gunshots and started
walking back to his house. Apparently when he walks along
the beach in the morning (people have seen him, of course),
he has "one body guard, walking a few feet behind." As he
was walking up the hill to his house he was shot in the stomach
and in the shoulder. He was taken to the International Special
Forces compound and then around noon to Darwin. He's now
in "stable but critical" condition, in an induced coma.
This happened around 6:15 am, apparently. 40 minutes later
(without having been told about the attack!), the Prime Minister
(Xanana Gusmao) left his residence (in the hills above Dili) in
a motorcade, as usual, to come to work. On their way they were
ambushed by 12 men. The cars came under "heavy fire" (the
head of security for the Bank says he saw the pictures and the
cars were in pretty bad shape). Xanana's car was shot at, the
tires were shot out, but still they continued driving and somehow
managed to escape. Another car went over the edge of the road
(this is coming down from the mountains, so it was probably
a cliff - I know those roads) and the police officers inside were
injured but otherwise fine. There were no deaths in this attack.
(But considering that it was 40 minutes after the attack on
Horta, it obviously shouldn't have happened at all. It would
appear that somehow Xanana had still not been told about the
attack on Horta).
So, that's what happened. Yesterday, I was sent a text message
at 8 in the morning (just as my class was supposed to start) that
"Alfredo's men have taken the President's house. Classes
cancelled." So I went home. Things were normal on the streets,
tho'. People didn't know what was happening or were just finding
out. Actually as soon as I got home I went to talk to my neighbours
and they calmed me down (I mean their reaction, or lack of it.)
Although later in the conversation someone was pretty serious.
(That may seem like a strange sentence, but Timorese joke
a lot. Which is not to say they're never serious and I've never
seen them look worried (I have), but at this point I think it's fair
to say I was feeling more panicky than them.) But the big news
- that Alfredo had been killed - was taken very seriously. One of
my neighbours said that if it was true, there would be "no problems"
(no reaction from people) - which I found strange, and hard to
believe. Some other neighbours (who have family members who
are petitioners) said no, if he was really dead there would be
problems.
So, this is the thing. I'm not sure if my neighbours (and others
who support the petitioners) really believe that Alfredo is
dead. By now, I think they must believe. There's a photo in
the paper of his body, and apparently it was also shown on
TV last night. But yesterday I know they didn't believe. One
of the neighbours in the morning said Alfredo's father (who
lives not very far from us) got a call from his son (or vice-versa)
and Alfredo was in Ermera, very much alive. That was the first
response to the news of his death. And frankly I was glad
to hear it, because as long as people didn't believe he was
dead (in my humble opinion), things would be fairly calm.
Later some other neighbours (whose brothers are petitioners)
said they called their brothers (in the mountains) and their
brothers didn't believe Alfredo was dead.
As of this morning, they are wondering why the family
hasn't been allowed to see Alfredo's body. They also say that
Alfredo's core group of security (about 20) are still in
Ermera (3 or 4 hours from Dili), so....they don't understand.
So, that's the news for now. I was waiting last night, waiting,
I guess, for people to find out that Alfredo was dead, and to
believe it. Xanana announced it on the radio, and TV. But
there didn't really seem to be a reaction. I was watching
the TV with the neighbours. Today, things are calm. Last
night, things were calm. Very quiet, in fact. There's a curfew
from 8pm - 6am, last night and tonight, and no public
gatherings are allowed. The Australians have sent another
100 troops (possibly a 'special task force') and may be
sending more...but so far there hasn't been any reaction
to speak of. I really hope there isn't one.
Maybe I should just end by saying it's really too bad. It's
too bad that the petitioners concerns weren't addressed
when they were first raised (two years ago). I think all
the Timorese I have talked to who have talked about this
issue have been sympathetic to their cause. Alfredo may
have been a bit of a nut (and what happened yesterday
doesn't seem like the actions of a super-sane man), but
there is a lot of support for the petitioners. I think people
need to keep that in mind. The foreign press can make
Alfredo sound really bad - he's evidently no angel - but
there was a lot of support for "his" cause. What happen"s"
to Alfredo and what happens to his supporters doesn't
really matter to people living in Portugal or Australia,
but it matters here. Of course in doing this I think it's
fair to say that whatever hope of a dialogue there was
has been wiped out. But notice - there were 700 or so
petitioners. Yesterday the attacks on Horta and Xanana
together were carried out by 20 of them, total. And the
people I know at least, whose brothers support him and
are (were) out in the hills "with" him didn't know he was
in Dili and were sure he was not dead. So...
yesterday. Alfredo Reinado, the leader of the petitionaros
(those who signed a petition two years ago asking that their
claims of discrimination in the armed forces be addressed)
was killed. I just attended a security briefing at the World
Bank, so I have a slightly clearer idea of what happened than
before. (The New York Times also has a pretty good article).
So apparently six men came to Horta's house (which is on the
outskirts of Dili, to the east - there are very few neighbours.
I could probably take a picture sometime (no time soon tho,
I'm sure) but I'm just saying it's a little bit "isolated" - but only
2 or 3 minutes from the eastern edge of Dili). Anyhow, they got
past the first layer of security. Horta was not at home
(he was walking on the beach) and Alfredo started "making
some noise" which alerted security (this is according to the
briefing I just heard). In the ensuing gunfight Alfredo and one
of his men were killed. Horta heard the gunshots and started
walking back to his house. Apparently when he walks along
the beach in the morning (people have seen him, of course),
he has "one body guard, walking a few feet behind." As he
was walking up the hill to his house he was shot in the stomach
and in the shoulder. He was taken to the International Special
Forces compound and then around noon to Darwin. He's now
in "stable but critical" condition, in an induced coma.
This happened around 6:15 am, apparently. 40 minutes later
(without having been told about the attack!), the Prime Minister
(Xanana Gusmao) left his residence (in the hills above Dili) in
a motorcade, as usual, to come to work. On their way they were
ambushed by 12 men. The cars came under "heavy fire" (the
head of security for the Bank says he saw the pictures and the
cars were in pretty bad shape). Xanana's car was shot at, the
tires were shot out, but still they continued driving and somehow
managed to escape. Another car went over the edge of the road
(this is coming down from the mountains, so it was probably
a cliff - I know those roads) and the police officers inside were
injured but otherwise fine. There were no deaths in this attack.
(But considering that it was 40 minutes after the attack on
Horta, it obviously shouldn't have happened at all. It would
appear that somehow Xanana had still not been told about the
attack on Horta).
So, that's what happened. Yesterday, I was sent a text message
at 8 in the morning (just as my class was supposed to start) that
"Alfredo's men have taken the President's house. Classes
cancelled." So I went home. Things were normal on the streets,
tho'. People didn't know what was happening or were just finding
out. Actually as soon as I got home I went to talk to my neighbours
and they calmed me down (I mean their reaction, or lack of it.)
Although later in the conversation someone was pretty serious.
(That may seem like a strange sentence, but Timorese joke
a lot. Which is not to say they're never serious and I've never
seen them look worried (I have), but at this point I think it's fair
to say I was feeling more panicky than them.) But the big news
- that Alfredo had been killed - was taken very seriously. One of
my neighbours said that if it was true, there would be "no problems"
(no reaction from people) - which I found strange, and hard to
believe. Some other neighbours (who have family members who
are petitioners) said no, if he was really dead there would be
problems.
So, this is the thing. I'm not sure if my neighbours (and others
who support the petitioners) really believe that Alfredo is
dead. By now, I think they must believe. There's a photo in
the paper of his body, and apparently it was also shown on
TV last night. But yesterday I know they didn't believe. One
of the neighbours in the morning said Alfredo's father (who
lives not very far from us) got a call from his son (or vice-versa)
and Alfredo was in Ermera, very much alive. That was the first
response to the news of his death. And frankly I was glad
to hear it, because as long as people didn't believe he was
dead (in my humble opinion), things would be fairly calm.
Later some other neighbours (whose brothers are petitioners)
said they called their brothers (in the mountains) and their
brothers didn't believe Alfredo was dead.
As of this morning, they are wondering why the family
hasn't been allowed to see Alfredo's body. They also say that
Alfredo's core group of security (about 20) are still in
Ermera (3 or 4 hours from Dili), so....they don't understand.
So, that's the news for now. I was waiting last night, waiting,
I guess, for people to find out that Alfredo was dead, and to
believe it. Xanana announced it on the radio, and TV. But
there didn't really seem to be a reaction. I was watching
the TV with the neighbours. Today, things are calm. Last
night, things were calm. Very quiet, in fact. There's a curfew
from 8pm - 6am, last night and tonight, and no public
gatherings are allowed. The Australians have sent another
100 troops (possibly a 'special task force') and may be
sending more...but so far there hasn't been any reaction
to speak of. I really hope there isn't one.
Maybe I should just end by saying it's really too bad. It's
too bad that the petitioners concerns weren't addressed
when they were first raised (two years ago). I think all
the Timorese I have talked to who have talked about this
issue have been sympathetic to their cause. Alfredo may
have been a bit of a nut (and what happened yesterday
doesn't seem like the actions of a super-sane man), but
there is a lot of support for the petitioners. I think people
need to keep that in mind. The foreign press can make
Alfredo sound really bad - he's evidently no angel - but
there was a lot of support for "his" cause. What happen"s"
to Alfredo and what happens to his supporters doesn't
really matter to people living in Portugal or Australia,
but it matters here. Of course in doing this I think it's
fair to say that whatever hope of a dialogue there was
has been wiped out. But notice - there were 700 or so
petitioners. Yesterday the attacks on Horta and Xanana
together were carried out by 20 of them, total. And the
people I know at least, whose brothers support him and
are (were) out in the hills "with" him didn't know he was
in Dili and were sure he was not dead. So...
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Shacking Up - Where to Stay in Com
OK, so there wasn't any shacking up going on. It's just a play
on words....without . the . "play", I guess. We arrived in Com,
which is on the northern coast (same as Dili), east of Baucau.
About as far east as you can go actually, along the (northern)
coast. Anyhow, we got dropped off at the Com Beach Resort
hotel, which has neat yet somehow cell-like rooms for $24.95
(US) a night. (Yes, this is one of the poorest countries in the
world, but you wouldn't guess it by the prices. It somehow
manages to be both poor and expensive at the same time. Ya
gotta love it.) After checking in (and paying), we took a walk
to the road into the 'town', and almost the first place we came
to in town was this cute little - guesthouse. Right on the beach,
with a little, low bamboo fence around it... $15 a night, plus
$3.50 for a fish dinner (fish, rice and vegetables). We said yes
to the dinner and high-tailed it back to the "resort" to see if
we could salvage any of our money. OK, I exagerate slightly.
And it was Sonju who suggested moving. But she was right -
it was nicer. I don't remember the name, but if anyone is
reading this looking for a place to stay, it's the first place
after the Com beach resort, on the left (on the beach).
It has two little buildings (6 rooms?) and a little fence
around it. I recommend it. Sonju thought the fish was the
best she's had in Timor, which is a pretty big compliment.
And it was good. For $3.50 you can't go very wrong, but it
was good. We had fish for dinner and fish for breakfast
and they prepared it differently each time.
About the swimming....they (meaning some guy on the street)
said to swim on the other side of the pier....which may be fine
....but Sonju and I walked further (to where the big black rocks
are) and Sonju almost tripped over a crocodile. OK, I exagerrate
more than slightly. It was pretty far from her. But I saw it
going into the water, and I have to say I won't be doing any
swimming in Com in the near future. Or the far future. Not
to mention that the Timorese think only sinners get attacked
by crocodiles. (Just the attitude you want as you're hauling
your mangled self into the emergency room. Yes! OK, I
confess! I have sinned!) Those sneaky crocodiles....
they're everywhere. Apparently they are everywhere.
I was regaling some folks in Los Palos with our view of
the jaws of mortality, and they said 'Crocodiles? Why, if
you wanna see some more you can just take a walk down
to the little creek behind here - there are four of them that
live there.' This was just outside of Los Palos - miles, and
I mean miles from the sea. Ugh. Near a nunnery, tho, so
presumably they're pretty hard up. Either there are lots
of sinning pigs and chickens around or - you wanna watch
your back.
A little serious advice - apparently crocodiles like rocky
beaches (better camoflauge), not white sand beaches.
The beach we saw one on was smooth white sand with
big black (like thigh-high) rocks on it, so I guess that
counts too. Of course if they're already in the water I'm
not sure how much camoflauge.....eeeeuuuuuwwww!
I'm outta here! Enough!
on words....without . the . "play", I guess. We arrived in Com,
which is on the northern coast (same as Dili), east of Baucau.
About as far east as you can go actually, along the (northern)
coast. Anyhow, we got dropped off at the Com Beach Resort
hotel, which has neat yet somehow cell-like rooms for $24.95
(US) a night. (Yes, this is one of the poorest countries in the
world, but you wouldn't guess it by the prices. It somehow
manages to be both poor and expensive at the same time. Ya
gotta love it.) After checking in (and paying), we took a walk
to the road into the 'town', and almost the first place we came
to in town was this cute little - guesthouse. Right on the beach,
with a little, low bamboo fence around it... $15 a night, plus
$3.50 for a fish dinner (fish, rice and vegetables). We said yes
to the dinner and high-tailed it back to the "resort" to see if
we could salvage any of our money. OK, I exagerate slightly.
And it was Sonju who suggested moving. But she was right -
it was nicer. I don't remember the name, but if anyone is
reading this looking for a place to stay, it's the first place
after the Com beach resort, on the left (on the beach).
It has two little buildings (6 rooms?) and a little fence
around it. I recommend it. Sonju thought the fish was the
best she's had in Timor, which is a pretty big compliment.
And it was good. For $3.50 you can't go very wrong, but it
was good. We had fish for dinner and fish for breakfast
and they prepared it differently each time.
About the swimming....they (meaning some guy on the street)
said to swim on the other side of the pier....which may be fine
....but Sonju and I walked further (to where the big black rocks
are) and Sonju almost tripped over a crocodile. OK, I exagerrate
more than slightly. It was pretty far from her. But I saw it
going into the water, and I have to say I won't be doing any
swimming in Com in the near future. Or the far future. Not
to mention that the Timorese think only sinners get attacked
by crocodiles. (Just the attitude you want as you're hauling
your mangled self into the emergency room. Yes! OK, I
confess! I have sinned!) Those sneaky crocodiles....
they're everywhere. Apparently they are everywhere.
I was regaling some folks in Los Palos with our view of
the jaws of mortality, and they said 'Crocodiles? Why, if
you wanna see some more you can just take a walk down
to the little creek behind here - there are four of them that
live there.' This was just outside of Los Palos - miles, and
I mean miles from the sea. Ugh. Near a nunnery, tho, so
presumably they're pretty hard up. Either there are lots
of sinning pigs and chickens around or - you wanna watch
your back.
A little serious advice - apparently crocodiles like rocky
beaches (better camoflauge), not white sand beaches.
The beach we saw one on was smooth white sand with
big black (like thigh-high) rocks on it, so I guess that
counts too. Of course if they're already in the water I'm
not sure how much camoflauge.....eeeeuuuuuwwww!
I'm outta here! Enough!
Our Trip to Los Palos
'Us' was Sonju and I - Sonju is friends with the head of UN
transportation here in Dili (and in Baucau), so she worked it.
We just had to sign waivers, you know...saying they weren't
responsible for us, should anything happen.
What could possibly happen?
Haha. Don't worry, nothing did happen, of the traffic accident
variety, but oh my God....those roads. Muta - muta! (It means
throw up, and I kept practising the phrase -
"Stop! I have to throw up!" cuz I really thought I was going to
use it.) The road, especially leaving Dili for the first half
an hour or so, goes around the cliffs above the sea, which is
beautiful....but - you get the picture. I would most highly
recommend travelling around this country on a motorbike
or a bicycle. On either of those I think you could better 'absorb'
the beauty - and it is beautiful. But in a car.... No, thank-you.
There are just way too many curves, and unless you're
driving yourself, almost all the people here (Timorese and
malae) go just a bit too choppily for it to be pleasant.
Also, of course, you can't really see in a car - you know,
you're not really 'there' as much.
transportation here in Dili (and in Baucau), so she worked it.
We just had to sign waivers, you know...saying they weren't
responsible for us, should anything happen.
What could possibly happen?
Haha. Don't worry, nothing did happen, of the traffic accident
variety, but oh my God....those roads. Muta - muta! (It means
throw up, and I kept practising the phrase -
"Stop! I have to throw up!" cuz I really thought I was going to
use it.) The road, especially leaving Dili for the first half
an hour or so, goes around the cliffs above the sea, which is
beautiful....but - you get the picture. I would most highly
recommend travelling around this country on a motorbike
or a bicycle. On either of those I think you could better 'absorb'
the beauty - and it is beautiful. But in a car.... No, thank-you.
There are just way too many curves, and unless you're
driving yourself, almost all the people here (Timorese and
malae) go just a bit too choppily for it to be pleasant.
Also, of course, you can't really see in a car - you know,
you're not really 'there' as much.
The Cuban Connection
I took this picture the first or second week I was here, back in
October. Sonju and I were looking for Bella, and I knew that she
had worked for an organization called La'o Hamutuk (Walking
Together). But the taxi driver dropped us off in front of this
organization - Luta Hamutuk (Fighting/Struggling Together). As
long as we're together.....
Anyhow, it was a good chance for a photo-op. Pictures of Che are
everywhere - along with a lot of other things. So, after taking this
picture and chatting a little (in our, at that time, very new Tetun),
we walked (together haha) to La'o Hamutuk. La'o Hamutuk is a civil
society watchdog organization - they produce a newsletter which has
a greater readership than the newspapers (I believe that's what they
say on their website) and a radio show. They write and do research
on what the government and various NGOs are doing. They wrote
about the World Bank in their last edition - a wise little piece, I thought.
They're a good organization, very necessary.
As for the Cubans....there are 300 of them apparently, throughout
the country. Doctors and nurses (of course). The last government
made an agreement with Cuba - the details of which I do not know
~ something tells me if I look in an old La'o Hamutuk bulletin I will
find it though - which involves Cuba sending doctors and Timor
sending students, to Cuba, to become doctors. We met a Cuban
doctor in Los Palos who said the Timorese are studying in Havana
but the Cuban government is also building a school just for them
near Pinar del Rio. So, next time you're in Cuba....say "Bon Dia"
to the Timorese!
P.S. The article on the World Bank is called "Neo-liberal
recommendations."
October. Sonju and I were looking for Bella, and I knew that she
had worked for an organization called La'o Hamutuk (Walking
Together). But the taxi driver dropped us off in front of this
organization - Luta Hamutuk (Fighting/Struggling Together). As
long as we're together.....
Anyhow, it was a good chance for a photo-op. Pictures of Che are
everywhere - along with a lot of other things. So, after taking this
picture and chatting a little (in our, at that time, very new Tetun),
we walked (together haha) to La'o Hamutuk. La'o Hamutuk is a civil
society watchdog organization - they produce a newsletter which has
a greater readership than the newspapers (I believe that's what they
say on their website) and a radio show. They write and do research
on what the government and various NGOs are doing. They wrote
about the World Bank in their last edition - a wise little piece, I thought.
They're a good organization, very necessary.
As for the Cubans....there are 300 of them apparently, throughout
the country. Doctors and nurses (of course). The last government
made an agreement with Cuba - the details of which I do not know
~ something tells me if I look in an old La'o Hamutuk bulletin I will
find it though - which involves Cuba sending doctors and Timor
sending students, to Cuba, to become doctors. We met a Cuban
doctor in Los Palos who said the Timorese are studying in Havana
but the Cuban government is also building a school just for them
near Pinar del Rio. So, next time you're in Cuba....say "Bon Dia"
to the Timorese!
P.S. The article on the World Bank is called "Neo-liberal
recommendations."
Friday, January 25, 2008
Posting in Progress....
You may notice that I've put some new pictures up.
My plan was just to upload as many pictures as I
could, then write about them later. But (five pictures
in) my camera has conked out! Well, at least I've
done something (for the first time in - almost a month!?)
So I will continue soon! More to come. Thanks for
watching (the grass grow......?)
Ate logu (A bientot)
My plan was just to upload as many pictures as I
could, then write about them later. But (five pictures
in) my camera has conked out! Well, at least I've
done something (for the first time in - almost a month!?)
So I will continue soon! More to come. Thanks for
watching (the grass grow......?)
Ate logu (A bientot)
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